Tuesday, February 19, 2019

How you can make profit from football betting?

Yes you can, but to do so you need to find value and stop trying to pick winners.


1. Find value from odds deviations at bookmakers. 

Value occurs when you've got the upper hand on the bookmakers or the markets. There are mainly two reasons an valuebets occur - and to understand them, we need to cover how the bookmakers operate. All bookmakers and exchanges have a margin - that's ultimately how they make money. Their margin may vary from as low as 3% to as high as 20%. Imagine a pure coin flip where you can bet on heads or tails. The odds should be 2 on each side, which means 50% probability of hitting one of the sides. For bookmakers to make money, they put their odds at 1.8 on both sides, skimming 10% off whatever the winning bet is.
The best and sharpest bookmakers in the world are purely market driven, which means that when enough money are put on one of the sides, that odds will decrease while the other one increases. This means the odds are ultimately decided by liquidity in the market. When the amount of money going through is high enough - the odds are as close to perfect as it will be. By looking at the odds of these high liquidity markets, one can acquire the knowledge of hundreds of thousands of people. Not many bookmakers can pull this off, because they don't have a large enough customer base makings things too uncertain. The ones that can are mostly placed in Asia. Value occurs when any kind of new information that impacts the game is acquired.
A very good example is the FA cup game between Chelsea vs Manchester City on February 21st. A couple of hours before the game, the best odds you could get on Chelsea to win was around 1.75-1.8. Then, exactly 1 hour before the game the lineups went public - and it turned out that Manchester City brought five teenage full debutants in their lineup. As seen in the picture, that information triggered a huge change in the market. All the high liquidity markets dropped from 1.75-1.8 to 1.35-1.45 in less than 10 minutes. However - a lot of the European bookmakers didn't react nearly quickly enough. Some bookmakers spent more than 30 minutes changing their odds. That means you could now get Chelsea to win at 1.7-1.8 when everyone else agreed they should have no more than 1.35-1.45. This turned out as an edge higher than 15%.
An edge can be reviewed as a bet with a +EV%. If you place $100 on a 15% edge, you can expect to net profit $100 * 15% = $15. Edges as high as 15% is a bit uncommon, but plenty exist in the range of 2–6% at the soft bookmakers. You can look for value manually or you can look for services which does this for you. If you go for the latter option, make sure to find someone who is fast.
The aim is to get in a high volume of bets / turnover with a small edge to make a profit in the long term.

2. Start with clearing signup bonuses on the soft bookmakers.

The majority of soft bookmakers offer bonuses with a turnover requirement, e.g. a 10x. You can use arbitrage to clear these bonuses. For instance let’s say you are betting on an Over / Under in a basketball game. Bookie A offer 2.05 in odds on an over, while Bookie B offers a 2.05 in odds on under. By placing $100 on each side, you have a surebet with a guaranteed profit of 2.5%. [ 1 / (1/2.05 + 1/2.05)]. Remember that you’re goal is to clear the bonus, so you can go break even by taking 2.0 and 2.0 or even go slightly below. Just make sure that your bonus is large enough to justify taking bets with a slightly negative expected value.

3. Know that “tipsters” who are profitable would never give away their advice for free.

Most tipster make money from affiliate deals with bookmakers where they get money if you use their links to sign up to the bookmaker site or by getting a percentage of losses made by bettors. If a tipster has an actual edge or inside information they will act upon this themselves. Only once they have taken a position in the game will they be willing to give up this information. The result being that they get better odds than you. For instance if a tipster recommends Troy at home versus South Florida in the NCAA at 1.75. They could take an earlier position at 1.80. Once people start following their advice and the market drops to let’s say 1.65 they can take a bet on the other side to make a surebet. Most tipster also don’t want to give away their track record and for the once that do, there is no guarantee that they have not simply deleted some of the bets they have lost. For the tipsters who actually do show you their full track record, the sample size is often very low. If they only place 250 bets a season for example their results will mainly be down to luck. There are two good articles on Pinnacle, which covers how to evaluate tipsters track records and survivorship bias.

4. Don’t bet on accumulators.

Bookmakers need to be profitable so on every bet they offer, they take a cut which typically on average is around 10%. Thus the odds you are getting is lower than the actual probability of that outcome and in the long run you are losing 10% of every bet you make. By combining multiple bets your disadvantage gets compounded, actually making you lose on average 34% of your stake. Let’s say you place a £10 on a 4 leg accumulator at 60 in odds. The bookmaker is essentially saying this will happen 1 time every 60 times. However, you should be getting odds of 91 (average payback at 90% giving 0.9^4 = 0.6561, 60/0.6561 = 91.45). That means the bookmaker has an edge of 34% over you. Doesn’t sound very fair does it? That’s why bookmakers are spending millions on advertising accumulators.

5. Not having a staking strategy.

Even if you are placing profitable trades, without a correct staking strategy, variance could wipe you out. So what does a profitable staking strategy look like? Well there’s two options you can deploy profitably. A flat stake, and a proportional stake.With a flat bet size, you either put the same wager on every single game, or you put the same wager on games that have the same odds and edge. Flat bet sizing is fairly easy to use, but it's hard to select a proper size. A size too big will increase the chance of going broke, while a size too low will not yield big enough profits.A proportional strategy is where you place a certain percentage of your current bankroll on each bet. Kelly's Criterion is a formula that maximizes the growth rate of your bankroll. You should be aware that following the Kelly Criterion is high risk. You can reduce your risk by following for instance 30% of whatever the Kelly Criterion tells you to. Top soccer picks is a good football tips website.

6. Know how bookmakers work and measure by whether you are able to beat Pinnacle or the closing lines of the other sharp bookmakers.

As part of any form of investing it is important to have a benchmark that you can compare your performance against. Otherwise, you do not know whether the results you are getting are because you have made smart decisions or luck. Professional poker players use analysis software to track their hand history, enabling them to review whether they make decisions with a positive expected value. E.g. calling hands where they have pot odds. For stock investors, a suitable benchmark is how you perform against the S&P 500, an index fund consisting of the 500 US companies with the highest market cap (Stock price x volume of shares). For sports traders, the benchmark is the odds at the time the match kicks-off, what is known as the closing line.
How bookmakers decide upon their odds
Typically an odds line will be placed by a bookmaker after they have performed a statistical analysis, which takes all the information they have available into consideration for instance, the team’s lineup, injuries and historical performance. Once the initial odds line has been set it will be adjusted based on market movements, meaning how much money is put on the different outcomes. The efficient market hypothesis used in financial markets states that it is impossible to beat the market because the existing asset prices always incorporate and reflect all relevant information. So if an asset is underpriced in the stock market, it will lead to investors buying the stock until it returns to its intrinsic value or in other words a fair price. The same applies to the sports market, if a bookmaker underpriced the odds of a particular outcome, let’s say a home win to Liverpool vs Manchester United, then smart sports traders will put money on this outcome until it is priced at a fair value. So for instance, if someone places a $1 million on Liverpool to win, the odds will shift. If another person believes that the odds is now mispriced and that there is value on the other side, they might place $1 million on Manchester United to win and the odds will shift again and thus eliminating the inefficiency. The more money that is put on the outcome of a game, the more likely it is that the all of the inefficiencies have been eliminated. Thus the odds at the time the match kicks off, the vig-free (bookmaker’s margin removed) closing line, will reflect all of the information that is in the market.


Sunday, November 25, 2018

Five keys to Real Madrid's poor LaLiga Santander performances

English // marca
Five keys to Real Madrid's poor LaLiga Santander performances
Five keys to Real Madrid's poor LaLiga Santander performances

Saturday, November 24, 2018

Man Utd To Bring In Atletico’s Director Of Football After Sacking Jose Mourinho

BlameFootball
Man Utd To Bring In Atletico’s Director Of Football After Sacking Jose Mourinho
Atletico Madrid's Gabi and Fernando Torres lift the trophy as they celebrate winning the Europa League.

REUTERS/Peter Cziborra

Manchester United‘s woeful season continued on Saturday, as their goalless draw against Crystal Palace at Old Trafford put them in the 7th position in the Premier League, 14 points behind leaders Man City.

While their defence has been shockingly leaky since the start of the campaign, their attack has looked incohesive and clueless, despite some big names and potent talents being brought in during the previous transfer windows.

The current Red Devils’ squad consists of an array of players bought by four different managers, right from the legendary Sir Alex Ferguson to the man presently at the helm, Jose Mourinho.

Further, the team continues to lack a proper approach whilst on the pitch, with the Portuguese gaffer’s attacking tactics far from clearly defined.

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These issues at the Old Trafford outfit aren’t new, but the club finally intends to solve them all in a single stroke, by appointing a new director of football.

The 20-time English champions have never had a director, but their hierarchy seems to have realised the importance of appointing one if they are to adapt to the changes occuring in the game.

Now, according to Pedro Morata, a journalist for Spanish outlet Cadena Ser, Atletico Madrid’s director of football, Andrea Berta, has been offered the same role at Manchester United.

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The report adds that this offer would only be applicable if the Premier League giants part ways with Jose Mourinho at the end of the campaign – a scenario which looks likely to pan out, considering his team’s position as well as form so far this season.

Berta, who has previously occupied the directorial roles at several clubs in his homeland Italy, including Parma and Genoa, has been tremendously successful at Atletico Madrid.

His appointment could very well prove to be a major step in the Mancunians’ revival and subsequent return to the top of English football.

The post Man Utd To Bring In Atletico’s Director Of Football After Sacking Jose Mourinho appeared first on BlameFootball.

Friday, November 23, 2018

Valverde pardons Dembele and puts him in the squad for Atletico

English // marca
Valverde pardons Dembele and puts him in the squad for Atletico
Valverde pardons Dembele and puts him in the squad for Atletico

Chelsea transfer news: N'Golo Kante signs new five-year contract at Stamford Bridge

The Independent - Football
Chelsea transfer news: N'Golo Kante signs new five-year contract at Stamford Bridge
Chelsea transfer news: N'Golo Kante signs new five-year contract at Stamford Bridge
The French international has been a sensation since signing from Leicester City in the summer of 2016

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Mourinho Scouts Two Belgian Stars, Including A Surprise Midfield Target

BlameFootball
Mourinho Scouts Two Belgian Stars, Including A Surprise Midfield Target
Belgium players celebrate after Kevin De Bruyne scores their second goal.

REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

Manchester United could be in for some crucial incomings in the January transfer window as far key signings are concerned.

Manager Jose Mourinho was recently spotted in Brussels, watching Belgium’s Nations League fixture.

The Red Devils’ boss was reportedly scouting Tottenham Hotspur’s Toby Alderweireld, who has been a chief target since the summer. However, the centre-back wasn’t the only player monitored by the Portuguese.

According to a report in Het Laatste Nieuws, Mourinho was also keeping an eye on Alex Witsel. The Borussia Dortmund midfielder is being targeted by Mourinho for the upcoming January window, as United plan to test the German club’s resolve.

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Witsel moved to the current Bundesliga leaders in the summer, and it is highly unlikely that an in-form Dortmund would allow their key asset to depart so soon. But the Mancunian club is expected to give BVB their desired profit, so as to bolster their own squad.

Witsel has turned out to be one of the biggest bargain buys of the summer, having moved to Germany for a paltry £17m in August from Chinese Super League side Tianjin Quanjian.

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Mourinho is said to be regretting his decision of not moving for the experienced player. The decorated manager instead opted to spend fortunes on Brazilian midfielder Fred, who hasn’t found the composure in the Premier League so far.

Witsel has bagged 3 goals in 17 appearances for Dortmund, who are four points clear at the top of the Bundesliga. United have a packed midfield with multiple options, but if the 29-year-old arrives, he shall surely ease things out.

His arrival could also lead to Scott McTominay getting loaned out to garner some vital experience.

The post Mourinho Scouts Two Belgian Stars, Including A Surprise Midfield Target appeared first on BlameFootball.

Wednesday, November 21, 2018

Vinicius Jr. is a finalist for the Golden Boy Award

English // marca
Vinicius Jr. is a finalist for the Golden Boy Award
Vinicius Jr. is a finalist for the Golden Boy Award